Environment Agency warns that a dry winter could bring irrigation bans in spring 2027

On 2 November the Environment Agency published its assessment of prospects for refilling agricultural storage reservoirs this winter (Environment Agency). It modelled three scenarios for November–March rainfall and warned that a dry winter could lead to further irrigation restrictions in 2027 (Water Magazine). Even an average winter would leave some regions short.

What we know

• 100% of average winter rainfall: prospects are generally good. They are only moderate in the West Midlands, Devon, Cornwall and East Anglia, where reservoirs may not fully refill by spring and local restrictions remain possible.
• 80%: prospects are moderate across southern, central and eastern England and poor in those four areas. Section 57 spray-irrigation restrictions become more likely in some catchments during the 2027 season.
• 60%: refill prospects are poor across much of England, with widespread winter hands-off-flow restrictions. The EA expects conditions to be worse than at the start of spring 2026, with a significant risk of Section 57 restrictions in spring, including outright irrigation bans.

65%

Source: Environment Agency ↗

The starting point is weak. Cumulative rainfall had recovered to 99% of average by 24 October, but soils were much drier than normal at the end of September. Four river flow sites were exceptionally low: the Ely Ouse, the Derwent, the Swale and the Tone. Three southern chalk groundwater sites were also exceptionally low, and the EA says reservoir levels in some areas have fallen to record lows.

The EA will publish an updated irrigation prospects report at the end of February 2027.

Background

The warning comes with much of England still in drought. The EA's weekly report for 23 to 29 October listed severe drought in parts of Devon, Cornwall, Wessex, Solent and South Downs, and Kent and South London. Ten water companies had temporary use bans in place, including Thames, Southern, South East, Anglian and South West Water (Environment Agency). Total reservoir storage in England was 57.9%, about 19% below average, with ten reservoirs or groups exceptionally low.

October rain brought some relief. The same report shows 207 abstraction licence restrictions in force, half the previous week's 414, largely because of Storm Austen. A regulatory position statement allowed out-of-season abstraction to fill farm reservoirs during October. The EA will decide later in the winter whether to extend that flexibility. The government has also announced a Water Management Grant of up to £15m to help farmers build on-farm reservoirs (Environment Agency).

What we don't know yet

• How much rain the winter will bring. The EA expects mid-November to turn more unsettled but has lower confidence beyond that.
• Whether the October out-of-season abstraction flexibility will be extended.
• Which specific catchments would face Section 57 restrictions first.

What to watch

• Weekly EA drought reports, particularly chalk groundwater in the south.
• Whether temporary use bans are lifted or carried into 2027.
• The EA's February 2027 irrigation prospects update.
• Details of the Water Management Grant from Defra.